-Disaster Assistance-TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IN GULF OF MEXICO-

With the large amount of uncertainty that exists, care must be exercised to not look at the single line of the official National Hurricane Center forecast, or for that matter in this case even the cone, and assume that Debby is definitely is going there -- it might, but not necessarily -- given the extreme dichotomy in model forecasts the past few days and in the vastly different paths available via the atmospheric forks in the road that exist. Some tropical cyclones have track forecasts which are very straightforward and are of high confidence. This one does not.