2012 Hurricane Forecast

A Colorado State University team is forecasting a below-average 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season due to cooling of tropical waters and potential development of El Nino conditions.

The team headed by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach calls for 10 named storms during the hurricane season, which runs between June 1 and Nov. 30, according to a news release.

Four are expected to become hurricanes and two of those major hurricanes, reaching category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Despite the prediction for a less active season based on data analysis of about 30 years, the scientists warned that it only takes one hurricane to make it an active season for U.S. coastal residents.

The hurricane forecast team’s probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil in 2012 are:

• A 42-percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).
• A 24-percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).
• A 24-percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Tex. (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The team also predicts a 34-percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42 percent).