The hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project predicts above-average activity in the Atlantic for 2010 beginning June 1st.
The 2010 hurricane season is predicted to be more active than the average for the 1950-2000 seasons. The December 2009 report estimates approximately 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes occurring during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which is more typical of years in an active era, such as the 1995 season.
The forecast utilizes a statistical methodology derived from 58 years of past data and climate-related global and regional predictors. The effects of El Nino or La Nina also have an impact on the frequency of hurricanes. El Nino creates warmer water, and stronger winds that rip tropical depressions apart before they become tropical storms or hurricanes. La Nina creates cooler water, resulting in more hurricanes. Based on these facts, it is forecasted that El Nino conditions now in effect will weaken.
Importance of Hurricane Season Forecasts
The early forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season issued in December can be seen as a good estimate of future storm activity. The scientists at Colorado State University are hesitant to release actual storm number predictions until April 2010. Yet, this December 2009 report aims to “satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem.” This is the 27th year that the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has released a hurricane season forecast.
Due to the fact that previous December forecasts have yet to show a satisfactory forecast skill, the December reports only issue a range of numbers and an assessment of current conditions. This assessment provides the background for the forecast in determining the likely conditions for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone presence. The specific numbers will not be issued until early April 2010.
New Statistical Forecasts More Accurate
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project scientists state that “we have yet to demonstrate real-time forecast skill for our early December forecasts that have been issued for the last 18 years”. However, the team is now utilizing a new statistical forecast methodology for our early December predictions, in hopes of increasing the skill and accuracy of the report.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Haiti Update From WFRRM
Dave Heath I think I know why I am here. I Made another connection with to 2 more hospitals and 2 orphanages. They care for the wounded orphans after the Milo hospital gets done with the critical care portion. They need food so we will provide. Got a pilot to pick up beans in the DR for $50.00 a bag and they will arrive today. Th...at is a $17.00 savings per bag. "I AM" is making it all happen among the NGO's we are talking and networking like I have never seen happen before. I put This new girl in touch with another hospital and they needed beds and the other hospital had them. Wow I would have never thought like this before. While typing this a nurse came up and asked me if I do food and I said yes. She said she is leaving and has some anitbiotics to give away. All the sudden one of the doctors I know came by and I introduced them to each other and he was looking for anitbiotics. Gee what acoincidence - RIGHT!
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
WFR Relief Ministries's Notes
Report from Jean Elmera in Port au Prince:Share
Today at 12:08pm
In the midst of every disaster, God's redemptive plan is at work even though it is usually hard to see it. Hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes do not hinder His saving work but rather the opposite is often true. An encouraging report of good news comes from our brother and World Radio speaker Jean Elmira from Port au Prince, Haiti.
He reports an intensified hunger for God after the tragedy. Large crowds are attending worship in an abandoned Catholic church across the street from the building that was destroyed. On Feb 6th fourteen people were baptized including a Pentecostal minister and radio station owner. With funds provided by caring people all over the world, WFR Relief has provided food and water to Bro. Elmira and his helpers. They are providing two hot meals to dozens of people every day and trying to encourage the people the best they can. They have also given out food boxes to nearly 500 people.
The church building in Port au Prince and the Delmas Christian school were reduced to rubble, but faithful Christians are serving and ministering. They hope to soon have the 470 students back to their studies under tents until a permanent place can be found. Brother Elmira stated: “ People are looking more and more to the church for help and advice .
We appreciate your prayers and support which enable us to lift our hands and to lift up Christ’s name in times like these . Our message: the Church of Christ indestructible. The church is not a building. When this building was destroyed, we know God has a better plan.
Today at 12:08pm
In the midst of every disaster, God's redemptive plan is at work even though it is usually hard to see it. Hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes do not hinder His saving work but rather the opposite is often true. An encouraging report of good news comes from our brother and World Radio speaker Jean Elmira from Port au Prince, Haiti.
He reports an intensified hunger for God after the tragedy. Large crowds are attending worship in an abandoned Catholic church across the street from the building that was destroyed. On Feb 6th fourteen people were baptized including a Pentecostal minister and radio station owner. With funds provided by caring people all over the world, WFR Relief has provided food and water to Bro. Elmira and his helpers. They are providing two hot meals to dozens of people every day and trying to encourage the people the best they can. They have also given out food boxes to nearly 500 people.
The church building in Port au Prince and the Delmas Christian school were reduced to rubble, but faithful Christians are serving and ministering. They hope to soon have the 470 students back to their studies under tents until a permanent place can be found. Brother Elmira stated: “ People are looking more and more to the church for help and advice .
We appreciate your prayers and support which enable us to lift our hands and to lift up Christ’s name in times like these . Our message: the Church of Christ indestructible. The church is not a building. When this building was destroyed, we know God has a better plan.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Latest from WFRM
Some things David wanted to share:
He has made coordination with the military, UNICEF, & USAID for Healing Hands at the airport in Port au Prince (PAP so that any church groups coming into PAP will have all the food & water, etc. for their missions that they need. It is set up so that Lucner Pierre, Jean Elmyra, and Debbie Vanderbeek know where to enter the airport and meet with these officials.
Sad news – the largest church of Christ in PAP has been crushed and there are a reported 50 buried bodies. He was able to speak with Lester Holt (NBC TV) today and implored him to move someone in to help that area.
Regarding the earthquake today – he felt something but thought it was a large truck going down the road.
In the short time he’s been in PAP he says it’s been both better and worse than can be imagined. Better in that he’s seen not a shred of violence of any kind (of course it’s there but it’s certainly not widespread) but worse devastation than you can even gain from watching the TV shows.
Take care and keep them in your prayers and even more keep the Haitian people in your prayers.
God bless,
Maxine Heath
He has made coordination with the military, UNICEF, & USAID for Healing Hands at the airport in Port au Prince (PAP so that any church groups coming into PAP will have all the food & water, etc. for their missions that they need. It is set up so that Lucner Pierre, Jean Elmyra, and Debbie Vanderbeek know where to enter the airport and meet with these officials.
Sad news – the largest church of Christ in PAP has been crushed and there are a reported 50 buried bodies. He was able to speak with Lester Holt (NBC TV) today and implored him to move someone in to help that area.
Regarding the earthquake today – he felt something but thought it was a large truck going down the road.
In the short time he’s been in PAP he says it’s been both better and worse than can be imagined. Better in that he’s seen not a shred of violence of any kind (of course it’s there but it’s certainly not widespread) but worse devastation than you can even gain from watching the TV shows.
Take care and keep them in your prayers and even more keep the Haitian people in your prayers.
God bless,
Maxine Heath
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